10 reasons why Russia had to invade Ukraine.
1. Crimea
Most of Russia’s ports are iced over for about 6 months in a year and hence not useful for global trade by sea. The port at Sevastopol on Crimean peninsular is one of the few ports that operate all year long and through which much of Russian imports and exports flow. Crimea is an existential requirement for Russia and its forceful occupation in 2014, Russia wants to formalise its annexation.
2. Ports on the Black Sea and Sea of Azov
There are many other ports that are currently in Ukraine and on the Black Sea, such as Odessa which is essential for both Ukraine and Russia. Russia covets this coastline and to convert Ukraine into a landlocked country so that NATO will not be able to misuse the Black Sea ports to supply Ukraine with arms and ammunition.
UK and Europe have been building ports for leasing out their navies, ostensibly to protect Ukrainian and European interest but is actually designed to threaten and one day take on Russia’s Black sea merchant fleet and navy.
3. NATO
NATO is not interested in Ukraine per se except as a pawn to trouble Russia and use it as a springboard to attack Russia. Placing missiles within 5 min flying time to Moscow and St. Petersburg is an existential threat to Russia and it has opposed this at every forum. America, Europe and Ukraine have simply ignored Russia’s protests. Therefore Russia has taken matters into its own hands and asserted its right to self preservation now by force.)St. Petersburg is an existential threat to Russia and it has opposed this at every forum. America, Europe and Ukraine have simply ignored Russia’s protests. Therefore Russia has taken matters into its own hands and asserted its right to self preservation now by force.
4. Breaking the Land Blockade
The roads that lead to Sevastopol, Kherson, and Odessa have to traverse through Eastern Ukraine. Ukraine at will, can block Russia’s trade through its territory and this also poses a great threat to Russian commerce. This threat needed to be neutralised. So the occupation of Russian populated Eastern Ukraine became an imperative.
5. Water Blockade
Crimea has been receiving most of its water from the North Crimean canal, which the Ukrainians had blocked off soon after Russia seized Crimea in 2014. This has resulted in great difficulty to the predominantly ethnic Russian agricultural and civilian population in Crimea. One of the first actions of the advancing Russian forces was to seize control of the canal and open its gates to quench Crimea’s thirst and needs.
Russia it is anticipated that will seize and acquire the entire Black Sea coast in Ukraine, so that it is the one that can land lock Ukraine and thus ensure that it is Ukraine that depends upon Russia rather than the other way around. A dependent State is less likely to jump into military and social adventurism as has been witnessed in the case of Ukraine, which has led to the present conflict.
6. Biological and Nuclear weapons programs
American Senator Tulsi Gabbard, and Under Secretary of the State DepartmentVictoria Nuland, have confirmed the evidence presented by Russia that the American military had funded and exclusively operated 28 bio-labs. They also confirmed that these bio-labs were at the outbreak of hostilities still undertaking development of dangerous pathogens and viruses. This is illegal and an international crime.
Russia has uncovered and provided evidence to the IAEA of Ukraine clandestinely diverting fissile material from their civilian nuclear program to develop nuclear weapons. Russia has had no choice but to take out these programs.
Russia alleges that Europe and America are supporting these programs.
7. De-Nazification
Western Ukraine in particular has had a strong Nazi tradition, a legacy of their active partnership with Hitler’s Nazi programs and agenda. Though hundreds of thousands of Jews were looted, raped and massacred, America continued to provide not only protection to these Nazi groups they supported them with training, funds and weapons. America was complicit in mainstreaming these Nazis and now they are present in strength in every aspect of Ukrainian society. In the political space, in society, in education, the military and law enforcement.
These Nazis as in the Azov battalion are well reputed for their brutal attacks and killings of Jews, Communists and Russian people. the bulk of the 14,450 Ukrainians of Russian origin in Donetsk and Lugansk Republics have been slaughtered by these Neo-Nazi groups of the Ukrainian army.
8. Oil & Gas
Since the fall of the Soviet Union and Ukraine becoming independent, various Oil companies have discovered significant shale oil deposits in the Donbas region and also near Lviv.
Significant gas deposits (estimated at 14 trillion Cu ft) which are ranked 14th highest in the world have been discovered off the Crimean and Ukrainian coast n the Black Sea. Exxon and Shell were granted very favourable rights to exploit these gas fields. However after Russia annexed Crimea they left Ukraine. Russia covets these energy deposits and wants to ensure that Ukraine does not benefit from these reserves.
Vast amount of natural gas is being supplied through pipelines to Ukraine itself and through it to Europe. Ukraine has been siphoning a fairly large quantity of these gas supplies without paying for it. A Ukrainian government if not friendly to Russia but at least not hostile to it will stop this theft and vast revenues die to Russia.
9. Prevention of Genocide of Russian people in Ukraine
Russian origin population of Ukraine is concentrated in the East and southern part of Ukraine. The major discrimination against them and the persecution of Russian people by the Ukrainian government and army is predominantly in the Donbas region close to the Russian border. On 17th Feb 2022 the two Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk declared themselves independent, refusing to accept to recognise Ukrainian authority over them. They sought help from Russia for their protection.
The matter became urgent because the Ukrainian had created the JFO (Joint Force Operations) for an all out war on the rebel Republics. The JFO had amassed the bulk of and the best of Ukrainian soldiers 14 battalions (60,000 soldiers approx.) and the Neo Nazi battalions on the border of the Donbas.
For the Russians this was a great strategic advantage. They were able to start their special operations in relatively friendly areas
10. Transnistria
Transnistria is a thin strip of land sandwiched between Moldova and Ukraine and one of the frozen conflict zones of the former Soviet Union. Populated by a significant ethnic Russian population which owes allegiance to Mother Russia. Moldova is under Russian military occupation and represents another area that Russia would like to be contagious with.
The Russian strategy unlike American and European strategy do not destroy cities, randomly attack civilians and civilian infrastructure, they focus on capturing or destroying the military and their infrastructure before they move to occupy cities.
Now that 94% of Lugansk and 60% of Donetsk along with Sea of Azov now under the control of Russia and their allies, one will witness the march on to other areas of Ukraine Westward right upto the Dnieper river dividing Ukraine into two parts and upto Transnistria in the south thus completely controlling the coast and ports.
The longer Zelensky dithers and awaits instructions from his masters in Washington to sit down and seriously sue for peace the greater the damage to Ukraine and the whole world.